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Milton Friedman on Politics, voting, and legislators

If the early successes of a new administration reflect a basic change in public opinion, the apparent lack of further progress after the first six to nine months will be deceptive. The early actions will continue to have their effects after they have disappeared from the front pages. The altered political atmosphere will lead the defeated opposition to modify its political position. Even if the opposition succeeds in returning to power, it will not pursue the same course that it pursued before.

Context. From the opening chapter of Tyranny of the Status Quo (1984), written with Rose D. Friedman, on Ronald Reagan’s first term. It follows the authors’ statement of a political generalization: a new administration has some six to nine months in which to achieve major changes, and needs a detailed program ready before the election.

Tyranny of the Status Quo
Book, 1984, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Ch. 1 “The Reagan Record: Promise and Performance”, p. 3 (with Rose D. Friedman)
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Milton Friedman, “Tyranny of the Status Quo” (Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1984), Ch. 1 “The Reagan Record: Promise and Performance”, p. 3 (with Rose D. Friedman). https://miltonfriedman.org/quotes/early-successes-basic-change-public-opinion-deceptive-1984

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  1. President Reagan’s experience conforms to a political generalization that has repeatedly proved valid: a new administration has some six to nine months in which to achieve major changes; if it does not seize the opportunity to act decisively during that period, it will not have another such opportunity. Further changes come slowly or not at all, and counterattacks develop against the initial changes. … This generalization has a corollary: a candidate for head of state who hopes to make a real difference has to do more than get elected; he or she must have a detailed program of action well worked out before the election.

    Context. From the opening chapter of Tyranny of the Status Quo (1984), written with Rose D. Friedman, on Ronald Reagan’s first term. The chapter calls the first six to nine months of his presidency his “honeymoon”, after which “the tyranny of the status quo asserted itself.”

    Tyranny of the Status Quo
    Book, 1984, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Ch. 1 “The Reagan Record: Promise and Performance”, p. 3 (with Rose D. Friedman)
    Checked against the sourceFind the book
  2. This was Reagan’s honeymoon. It lasted about six to nine months. Then the tyranny of the status quo asserted itself. Every special interest that was threatened proceeded to mount a campaign to prevent its particular governmental sinecure from being eliminated.

    Context. From the opening chapter of Tyranny of the Status Quo (1984), written with Rose D. Friedman, on Ronald Reagan’s first term. “This” is the early success the chapter has just described: oil price decontrol and Congress’s adoption in 1981 of his tax cuts, spending cuts and increase in defense funds.

    Tyranny of the Status Quo
    Book, 1984, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Ch. 1 “The Reagan Record: Promise and Performance”, p. 2 (with Rose D. Friedman)
    Checked against the sourceFind the book
  3. However, there is no reason for proponents of tax limitation to despair. Five years is a short time to effect a basic change in our governmental structure. The defeats are less impressive than the growing strength of taxpayer resentment at zooming governmental budgets.

    Context. From an April 1978 Newsweek column on the state tax-limitation movement, written after Tennessee adopted a spending limit and two months before California voted on Proposition 13. “The defeats” are Proposition 1 and similar amendments that failed in two other states.

    A Progress Report
    Column, 1978, Newsweek (April 10, 1978); reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, April 4, 1978, pp. 8709 to 8710, introduced by Representative John H. Rousselot of California, who describes it as “his byline article which appeared in the April 10, 1978 issue of Newsweek”, Congressional Record, April 4, 1978, pp. 8709 to 8710
    Checked against the sourceRead the original

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