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Milton Friedman on monetary policy and the federal reserve

What Friedman said about central banking, the money supply, and rules over discretion in monetary policy.

53 passages in the archive43 checked against the source10 not yet checked
  1. Analysis of the supply of money, and in particular of changes in the supply of money, is simple in principle but extremely complex in practice, both in our hypothetical world and in the current real world. Simple in principle, because the supply of money is whatever the monetary authorities make if, complex in practice, because the decisions of the monetary authorities depend on numerous factors.
    Money Mischief
    Book, 1992, Ch. 2 The Mystery of Money
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  2. If I were to make up a balance sheet for the Federal Reserve, I could name many credit items on the research side, very few on the policy side.
    Interview with Milton Friedman
    Interview, 1992, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, The Region, Interview by David Levy, June 1, 1992
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  3. The basic source of inflation is the faster growth in the quantity of money than in output.
    Perspective on Inflation
    Column, 1974, Newsweek (June 1974); reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, June 18, 1974, pp. 19786 to 19787, introduced by Representative Jack Kemp of New York, who calls it “his column this week in Newsweek.” The reprint gives no issue date, and the chart that ran with the column is not reproduced, Congressional Record, June 18, 1974, pp. 19786 to 19787
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  4. In the present state of our knowledge, I believe that the best—or least bad—guideline for monetary policy is steady growth of the quantity of money at a rate that on the average will mean stable prices of final products.
    Statement to the House Subcommittee on Domestic Finance
    Testimony, 1968, Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, Subcommittee on Domestic Finance, House Committee on Banking and Currency, 90th Congress, 2nd Session (December 1968), p. 203
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  5. For both long and short periods there is a consistent though not precise relation between the rate of growth of the quantity of money and the rate of growth of nominal income. If the quantity of money grows rapidly, so will nominal income, and conversely. The relation is much closer for long than for short periods
    Money Mischief
    Book, 1992, Ch. 2 The Mystery of Money
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  6. The rates of monetary growth specified by chairman Burns are too high. Yet, even so, actual monetary growth has been substantially higher.
    The Inflationary Fed
    Column, 1973, Newsweek, August 27, 1973; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, November 7, 1973, p. 36327, introduced by Representative Robert Huber of Michigan as “Mr. Milton Friedman’s article that appeared in Newsweek of August 27, 1973”, Congressional Record, November 7, 1973, p. 36327
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  7. In two earlier columns on monetary policy, I was highly critical of the Federal Reserve System for acting too late and then, when it did act, for overreacting. This time, I come to praise, not to criticize. Since November 1967, the Fed has moved not only in the right direction but also by about the right amount.
    Monetary Policy
    Column, 1968, Newsweek (June 3, 1968); reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 225–226, p. 225 of the 1968 House reprint
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  8. In my opinion, it would be desirable for Congress to instruct the Federal Reserve to adopt this policy. That would assure that the Federal Reserve System would provide a steady and stable background for private and public economic policy, instead of being itself a source of instability as it so often has been in the past and as it is currently being at this very moment.
    Statement to the House Subcommittee on Domestic Finance
    Testimony, 1968, Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, Subcommittee on Domestic Finance, House Committee on Banking and Currency, 90th Congress, 2nd Session (December 1968), pp. 203–204
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  9. Instead of simply requiring the Federal Reserve to report its “projections” or “targets” for monetary growth, let the Congress require the Fed to achieve specified rates of monetary growth (or specified levels of the quantity of money) within specified ranges of tolerance. That would combine responsibility and power. It would also enable the ordinary citizen to know whom to hold accountable for inflation.
    Why Inflation Persists
    Column, 1977, Newsweek (October 3, 1977); reprinted in full in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, September 29, 1977, p. 31684, introduced by Representative Parren J. Mitchell of Maryland, who gives it as appearing “in the October 3, 1977, issue of Newsweek”, Congressional Record, September 29, 1977, p. 31684
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  10. It is immediately clear that if we were to take up each case separately, a majority would almost surely vote to deny free speech in most cases and perhaps even in every case. ( … ) Exactly the same considerations apply in the monetary area. If each case is considered on its merits, the wrong decision is likely to be made in a large fraction of cases because the decisionmakers are examining only a limited area and are not taking into account the cumulative consequences of the policy as a whole.
    Should There Be an Independent Monetary Authority?
    Journal article, 1962, In Search of a Monetary Constitution, ed. Leland B. Yeager (Harvard University Press, 1962), pp. 219–243; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 205–214, p. 213 of the 1968 House reprint
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  11. It would be highly desirable if Europe could have a common money, a single unified money, just as it's desirable for the United States that we have a single unified currency. But in order for that to be possible or desirable, you have to have a unified currency over an area in which people and goods move relatively freely, and in which there is enough homogeneity of interest so that severe political strains are not raised by divergent developments in different parts of the area.
    Interview with Milton Friedman
    Interview, 1992, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, The Region, Interview by David Levy, June 1, 1992
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  12. Another defect of the conduct of monetary policy through an independent central bank that has a good deal of leeway and power is the extent to which the policy is thereby made highly dependent on personalities. In studying the history of American monetary policy, I have been struck by the extraordinary importance of accidents of personality.
    Should There Be an Independent Monetary Authority?
    Journal article, 1962, In Search of a Monetary Constitution, ed. Leland B. Yeager (Harvard University Press, 1962), pp. 219–243; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 205–214, p. 211 of the 1968 House reprint
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  13. The Fed should operate entirely by deciding (and announcing) in advance the changes in the monetary base (currency plus deposits at Federal Reserve Banks) required to achieve its monetary targets. If it wishes to do so, the Fed can control the base almost precisely from week to week through purchases and sales of government securities.
    Improving Monetary Policy
    Column, 1980, Newsweek, July 28, 1980; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, July 28, 1980, p. 20026, introduced by Representative Robert Dornan of California, who gives the column as appearing in the Newsweek issue “dated July 28, 1980”, Congressional Record, July 28, 1980, p. 20026
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  14. That explanation is not valid today. In January 1970, the Fed gave primacy in its policy directive to “monetary aggregates” rather than interest rates.
    The Inflationary Fed
    Column, 1973, Newsweek, August 27, 1973; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, November 7, 1973, p. 36327, introduced by Representative Robert Huber of Michigan as “Mr. Milton Friedman’s article that appeared in Newsweek of August 27, 1973”, Congressional Record, November 7, 1973, p. 36327
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  15. The Fed’s repeated failure to achieve its own targets has produced an impression that it cannot do so, that it is a helpless giant buffeted by events over which it has no control. That impression is false. The Fed’s failure does not reflect a lack of means. It reflects the Fed’s tardiness in adjusting its operating procedures to the change in its announced objectives.
    Improving Monetary Policy
    Column, 1980, Newsweek, July 28, 1980; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, July 28, 1980, p. 20026, introduced by Representative Robert Dornan of California, who gives the column as appearing in the Newsweek issue “dated July 28, 1980”, Congressional Record, July 28, 1980, p. 20026
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  16. I then attributed the divergence of promise from performance to misunderstanding. The men who run the Fed, I wrote, have “taken the behavior of interest rates rather than the quantity of money as their guide—and this mistake has led them far astray from their intended path.”
    The Inflationary Fed
    Column, 1973, Newsweek, August 27, 1973; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, November 7, 1973, p. 36327, introduced by Representative Robert Huber of Michigan as “Mr. Milton Friedman’s article that appeared in Newsweek of August 27, 1973”, Congressional Record, November 7, 1973, p. 36327
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  17. Those same procedures are clumsy and inefficient for achieving the objective that the Fed now professes: control of the quantity of money.
    Improving Monetary Policy
    Column, 1980, Newsweek, July 28, 1980; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, July 28, 1980, p. 20026, introduced by Representative Robert Dornan of California, who gives the column as appearing in the Newsweek issue “dated July 28, 1980”, Congressional Record, July 28, 1980, p. 20026
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  18. The Federal Reserve System has long displayed a propensity to swing erratically from one extreme to the other, from excessively rapid to excessively slow monetary growth. The propensity has seldom been more dramatically evident than in recent months, which have seen the sharpest swings in monetary growth in decades.
    Improving Monetary Policy
    Column, 1980, Newsweek, July 28, 1980; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, July 28, 1980, p. 20026, introduced by Representative Robert Dornan of California, who gives the column as appearing in the Newsweek issue “dated July 28, 1980”, Congressional Record, July 28, 1980, p. 20026
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  19. The Fed is supposedly independent. But, as Dooley said of the Supreme Court, “It follows the election returns.” Its behavior reminds me of nothing so much as the remark attributed to a U.S. Army officer in Vietnam, “We destroyed the village in order to save it.” Similarly, the Fed refrains from using its independence because it is afraid of losing it.
    Why Inflation Persists
    Column, 1977, Newsweek (October 3, 1977); reprinted in full in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, September 29, 1977, p. 31684, introduced by Representative Parren J. Mitchell of Maryland, who gives it as appearing “in the October 3, 1977, issue of Newsweek”, Congressional Record, September 29, 1977, p. 31684
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  20. Targets should be expressed in terms of dollar levels of monetary aggregates rather than, or in addition to, growth rates. In 1975, Congress required the Fed for the first time to specify targets a year in advance. However, the Fed has evaded the intended discipline by stating targets in terms of growth rates applied to a shifting level of actual monetary totals. This device buried past mistakes and enabled the Fed to start fresh each quarter.
    Improving Monetary Policy
    Column, 1980, Newsweek, July 28, 1980; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, July 28, 1980, p. 20026, introduced by Representative Robert Dornan of California, who gives the column as appearing in the Newsweek issue “dated July 28, 1980”, Congressional Record, July 28, 1980, p. 20026
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  21. It matters little whether the Federal Reserve is unable or unwilling to exercise its independence in deeds as well as words. In either case, let us be done with the fiction that “independence” is somehow or other a bastion against inflation. Let us put the responsibility for the rate of monetary growth—and therewith for the subsequent rate of inflation—squarely and openly on the Administration and Congress.
    Why Inflation Persists
    Column, 1977, Newsweek (October 3, 1977); reprinted in full in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, September 29, 1977, p. 31684, introduced by Representative Parren J. Mitchell of Maryland, who gives it as appearing “in the October 3, 1977, issue of Newsweek”, Congressional Record, September 29, 1977, p. 31684
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  22. A government which maintained law and order, defined property rights, served as a means whereby we could modify property rights and other rules of the economic game, adjudicated disputes about the interpretation of the rules, enforced contracts, promoted competition, provided a monetary framework, engaged in activities to counter technical monopolies and to overcome neighborhood effects widely regarded as sufficiently important to justify government intervention, and which supplemented private charity and the private family in protecting the irresponsible, whether madman or child—such a government would clearly have important functions to perform. The consistent liberal is not an anarchist.
    Capitalism and Freedom
    Book, 1962, Ch. 2 The Role of Government in a Free Society, p. 34
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  23. The great contraction is tragic testimony to the power of monetary policy—not, as Keynes and so many of his contemporaries believed, evidence of its impotence.
    The Role of Monetary Policy
    Journal article, 1968, American Economic Review 58, no. 1 (March 1968), pp. 1–17; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 214–224, p. 216 of the 1968 House reprint
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  24. The Great Depression in the United States, far from being a sign of the inherent instability of the private enterprise system, is a testament to how much harm can be done by mistakes on the part of a few men when they wield vast power over the monetary system of a country.
    Capitalism and Freedom
    Book, 1962, Ch. 3 The Control of Money, p. 50
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  25. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. … A steady rate of monetary growth at a moderate level can provide a framework under which a country can have little inflation and much growth. It will not produce perfect stability; it will not produce heaven on earth; but it can make an important contribution to a stable economic society.
    The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory
    Lecture, 1970
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  26. The plain fact is that inflation is made in Washington, in that stately and impressive Grecian temple . . . that houses the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
    The Inflationary Fed
    Column, 1973, Newsweek, August 27, 1973; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, November 7, 1973, p. 36327, introduced by Representative Robert Huber of Michigan as “Mr. Milton Friedman’s article that appeared in Newsweek of August 27, 1973”, Congressional Record, November 7, 1973, p. 36327
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  27. Inflation will not be stopped by words, only by actions. At the moment, we have the worst of two worlds. Nominal independence of the Federal Reserve without its effective exercise permits Congress and the President to evade responsibility for the creation of money to finance large government deficits.
    Why Inflation Persists
    Column, 1977, Newsweek (October 3, 1977); reprinted in full in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, September 29, 1977, p. 31684, introduced by Representative Parren J. Mitchell of Maryland, who gives it as appearing “in the October 3, 1977, issue of Newsweek”, Congressional Record, September 29, 1977, p. 31684
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  28. The sharper response of production than of prices is typical. An inflationary process, once underway, develops an inertia of its own. It takes an economic slowdown to stop the acceleration of prices and, even then, it takes a long time to restore price stability. That is why it is so important to prevent inflation from gaining momentum.
    Monetary Policy
    Column, 1968, Newsweek (June 3, 1968); reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 225–226, p. 226 of the 1968 House reprint
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  29. The future well-being of this country depends critically on whether, this time, intentions are translated promptly into performance.
    Perspective on Inflation
    Column, 1974, Newsweek (June 1974); reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, June 18, 1974, pp. 19786 to 19787, introduced by Representative Jack Kemp of New York, who calls it “his column this week in Newsweek.” The reprint gives no issue date, and the chart that ran with the column is not reproduced, Congressional Record, June 18, 1974, pp. 19786 to 19787
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  30. Setting a target range for the Federal Funds interest rate should be ended. That rate, and all other interest rates, should be determined entirely by the market and abandoned as instruments of policy. The Fed’s task, as it now recognizes, is to control the quantity of money, not interest rates.
    Improving Monetary Policy
    Column, 1980, Newsweek, July 28, 1980; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, July 28, 1980, p. 20026, introduced by Representative Robert Dornan of California, who gives the column as appearing in the Newsweek issue “dated July 28, 1980”, Congressional Record, July 28, 1980, p. 20026
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  31. If the relation that has prevailed between money and prices for the past dozen years continues, and if the Federal Reserve continues to permit the quantity of money to grow by 10 per cent a year, inflation will proceed at a rate of about 6 per cent. Judged not by pronouncements, not by intentions, but by performance, that is the rate that monetary policy for the past four years has been directed at producing.
    Perspective on Inflation
    Column, 1974, Newsweek (June 1974); reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, June 18, 1974, pp. 19786 to 19787, introduced by Representative Jack Kemp of New York, who calls it “his column this week in Newsweek.” The reprint gives no issue date, and the chart that ran with the column is not reproduced, Congressional Record, June 18, 1974, pp. 19786 to 19787
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  32. The widespread impression that the Fed has tightened is based on the mistake of judging monetary policy by interest rates, which the Fed cannot control, rather than by the quantity of money, which it can. The quantity of money is still growing as rapidly as it has for the past four years.
    Perspective on Inflation
    Column, 1974, Newsweek (June 1974); reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, June 18, 1974, pp. 19786 to 19787, introduced by Representative Jack Kemp of New York, who calls it “his column this week in Newsweek.” The reprint gives no issue date, and the chart that ran with the column is not reproduced, Congressional Record, June 18, 1974, pp. 19786 to 19787
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  33. Just as banks all around the country were closing, the Fed raised the discount rate; that's the rate they charge for loans to banks. Bank failures consequently increased spectacularly. We might have had an economic downturn in the thirties anyway, but in the absence of the Federal Reserve System—with its enormous power to make a bad situation worse—it wouldn't have been anything like the scale we experienced.
    Interview with Milton Friedman
    Interview, 1973, Playboy
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  34. As an empirical matter, low-interest rates are a sign that monetary policy has been tight—in the sense that the quantity of money has grown slowly; high-interest rates are a sign that monetary policy has been easy—in the sense that the quantity of money has grown rapidly. The broadest facts of experience run in precisely the opposite direction from that which the financial community and academic economists have all generally taken for granted.
    The Role of Monetary Policy
    Journal article, 1968, American Economic Review 58, no. 1 (March 1968), pp. 1–17; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 214–224, p. 218 of the 1968 House reprint
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  35. As a matter of principle, I am opposed to independence for the Federal Reserve System. Monetary policy should be administered by a governmental agency in the regular administrative hierarchy ultimately responsible to Congress.
    Statement to the House Subcommittee on Domestic Finance
    Testimony, 1968, Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, Subcommittee on Domestic Finance, House Committee on Banking and Currency, 90th Congress, 2nd Session (December 1968), p. 204
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  36. The first and most important lesson that history teaches about what monetary policy can do—and it is a lesson of the most profound importance—is that monetary policy can prevent money itself from being a major source of economic disturbance.
    The Role of Monetary Policy
    Journal article, 1968, American Economic Review 58, no. 1 (March 1968), pp. 1–17; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 214–224, p. 221 of the 1968 House reprint
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  37. True, money is only a machine, but it is an extraordinarily efficient machine. ( … ) But money has one feature that these other machines do not share. Because it is so pervasive, when it gets out of order, it throws a monkey wrench into the operation of all the other machines.
    The Role of Monetary Policy
    Journal article, 1968, American Economic Review 58, no. 1 (March 1968), pp. 1–17; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 214–224, p. 221 of the 1968 House reprint
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  38. The text for this paper, to paraphrase the famous remark attributed to Poincaré, is, “Money is too important to be left to the central bankers.”
    Should There Be an Independent Monetary Authority?
    Journal article, 1962, In Search of a Monetary Constitution, ed. Leland B. Yeager (Harvard University Press, 1962), pp. 219–243; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 205–214, p. 205 of the 1968 House reprint
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  39. Another occasion in U.S. history which strikingly illustrates this point is our experience from 1929 to 1933. Without doubt, the most serious mistake in the history of the Reserve System was its mismanagement of monetary matters during those years.
    Should There Be an Independent Monetary Authority?
    Journal article, 1962, In Search of a Monetary Constitution, ed. Leland B. Yeager (Harvard University Press, 1962), pp. 219–243; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 205–214, p. 211 of the 1968 House reprint
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  40. To avoid misunderstanding, let me emphasize that by using the term “natural” rate of unemployment, I do not mean to suggest that it is immutable and unchangeable. On the contrary, many of the market characteristics that determine its level are man-made and policy-made. In the United States, for example, legal minimum wage rates ( … ) and the strength of labor unions all make the natural rate of unemployment higher than it would otherwise be.
    The Role of Monetary Policy
    Journal article, 1968, American Economic Review 58, no. 1 (March 1968), pp. 1–17; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 214–224, p. 219 of the 1968 House reprint
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  41. I should like to emphasize that I do not regard this proposal as a be-all and end-all of monetary management, as a rule which is somehow to be written in tablets of gold and enshrined for all future time. ( … ) Such a rule seems to me the only feasible device currently available for converting monetary policy into a pillar of a free society rather than a threat to its foundation.
    Should There Be an Independent Monetary Authority?
    Journal article, 1962, In Search of a Monetary Constitution, ed. Leland B. Yeager (Harvard University Press, 1962), pp. 219–243; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 205–214, p. 214 of the 1968 House reprint
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  42. There is one and only one basic cure for inflation: slowing monetary growth. But that cure is easier to state than to put into effect: witness our repeated abandonment of the cure.
    Why Inflation Persists
    Column, 1977, Newsweek (October 3, 1977); reprinted in full in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, September 29, 1977, p. 31684, introduced by Representative Parren J. Mitchell of Maryland, who gives it as appearing “in the October 3, 1977, issue of Newsweek”, Congressional Record, September 29, 1977, p. 31684
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  43. The only way you could get the inflation down was by having monetary contraction. There was no way you could do that without having a temporary recession. The great error in the earlier period had been that whenever there was a little contraction there was a tendency to expand the money supply rapidly in order to avoid unemployment. That stop-and-go policy was really what bedeviled the Fed during the '60s and '70s.
    Commanding Heights: Milton Friedman interview
    Interview, 2000, PBS, “On Ronald Reagan,” interview conducted October 1, 2000
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  44. The organization of economic activity through voluntary exchange presumes that we have provided, through government, for the maintenance of law and order to prevent coercion of one individual by another, the enforcement of contracts voluntarily entered into, the definition of the meaning of property rights, the interpretation and enforcement of such rights, and the provision of a monetary framework.
    Capitalism and Freedom
    Book, 1962, Ch. 2 The Role of Government in a Free Society, p. 27
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  45. Our hopes have been shattered. Monetary growth has been both higher and more variable in the past three and a half years than in any other postwar period of equal length.
    The Inflationary Fed
    Column, 1973, Newsweek, August 27, 1973; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, November 7, 1973, p. 36327, introduced by Representative Robert Huber of Michigan as “Mr. Milton Friedman’s article that appeared in Newsweek of August 27, 1973”, Congressional Record, November 7, 1973, p. 36327
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  46. Over short periods, the relation between growth in money and growth in nominal income is often hard to see, partly because the relation is less close for short than for long periods, but mostly because it takes time for changes in monetary growth to affect income. And how long a time is itself variable. Today's income growth is not closely related to today's monetary growth; it depends on what has been happening to money in the past. What happens to money today affects what is going to happen to income in the future
    Money Mischief
    Book, 1992, Ch. 2 The Mystery of Money
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  47. To paraphrase Clemenceau, money is much too serious a matter to be left to the Central Bankers.
    Capitalism and Freedom
    Book, 1962, Ch. 3 The Control of Money, p. 50-51
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  48. My own prescription is still that the monetary authority go all the way in avoiding such swings by adopting publicly the policy of achieving a steady rate of growth in a specified monetary total. The precise rate of growth, like the precise monetary total, is less important than the adoption of some stated and known rate.
    The Role of Monetary Policy
    Journal article, 1968, American Economic Review 58, no. 1 (March 1968), pp. 1–17; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 214–224, p. 223 of the 1968 House reprint
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  49. To state this conclusion differently, there is always a temporary trade-off between inflation and unemployment; there is no permanent trade-off. ( … ) The widespread belief that there is a permanent trade-off is a sophisticated version of the confusion between “high” and “rising” that we all recognize in simpler forms. A rising rate of inflation may reduce unemployment, a high rate will not.
    The Role of Monetary Policy
    Journal article, 1968, American Economic Review 58, no. 1 (March 1968), pp. 1–17; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 214–224, p. 220 of the 1968 House reprint
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  50. More frequently, they have moved in the right direction, albeit often too late, but have erred by moving too far. Too late and too much has been the general practice.
    The Role of Monetary Policy
    Journal article, 1968, American Economic Review 58, no. 1 (March 1968), pp. 1–17; reprinted in the House Banking and Currency Committee’s 1968 Compendium on Monetary Policy Guidelines and Federal Reserve Structure, pp. 214–224, p. 223 of the 1968 House reprint
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  51. The use of quantity of money as a target has not been a success. I'm not sure that I would as of today push it as hard as I once did.
    Financial Times
    Column, 2003, Financial Times
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  52. What now explains the divergence between the Fed’s promises and its performance? Why does the Fed remain an engine of inflation? I confess that I am baffled.
    The Inflationary Fed
    Column, 1973, Newsweek, August 27, 1973; reprinted in the Congressional Record, Extensions of Remarks, November 7, 1973, p. 36327, introduced by Representative Robert Huber of Michigan as “Mr. Milton Friedman’s article that appeared in Newsweek of August 27, 1973”, Congressional Record, November 7, 1973, p. 36327
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  53. World War II affirmed what everybody knew for a long time. If you print enough money and spend it you can create an appearance of activity and prosperity. That's what it confirmed. It did not confirm his theories about how you preserve full employment over a long time.
    Commanding Heights: Milton Friedman interview
    Interview, 2000, PBS, “On John Maynard Keynes,” interview conducted October 1, 2000
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